AFA Journal - A Publication of American Family Assocation
So there are now 57 candidates who are “strongly considering” running in the Republican primaries to become the GOP’s nominee for president. Fifty-eight if you count Donald Trump, who made a speaking appearance in Iowa recently but hasn’t said if he is running or not. Fifty-nine if Trump’s hair runs as a separate candidate.
The first debate will be moderated by Larry King, who was chosen because of his ability to squeeze 12 people on a television screen to discuss topics. Each candidate will be allowed five words, which will serve as both opening and closing statements with no time for rebuttals.
So if Gov. Scott Walker of Wisconsin wants to use his five words to say, “Luke, I am your father,” it might get him a lot of publicity instead of trying to say something about his tax plan; which most people would consider extremely boring.
All kidding aside, the number of probable GOP candidates is in the teens now and growing. My guess is the field will probably narrow to 10 before the first debate and then to five after the Iowa caucus January 18.
The difference will be organization and money. Lots and lots of money is required for staying power. And right now the political “experts” are saying former Florida governor Jeb Bush is the early favorite to have both necessary ingredients.
When Bush was governor of Florida he was considered a conservative, even more so than his dad or his brother. However, some of his recent comments concerning how to deal with illegal immigration and his support for the controversial Common Core program have lessened his conservative credentials in the minds of many. Given Bush’s recent moderate leanings, it is not surprising that the media establishment and political insiders tout him as the leader.
From what I can detect, however, America is just not clamoring for another Bush to be president. Nor are they excited about another Clinton. If we get a Bush vs. Clinton final, I look for voting turn out across the country to be at 9%.
As it is traditional with both major political parties, there is a battle within the GOP itself to decide which “wing” will prevail. Will it be the “establishment” or a “true conservative” candidate?
This contention goes back decades, most notably when conservative Ronald Reagan challenged then sitting President Gerald Ford and lost. But then Reagan won the nomination in 1980, defeating the establishment candidate George H.W. Bush, who later signed on as Reagan’s vice president.
In 2008, the GOP primary season produced Sen. John McCain and in 2012 Gov. Mitt Romney. Both were more moderate to liberal than the Republican rank and file and won the nomination because two conservative candidates split the vote. But both McCain and Romney lost. Thus, many are saying only a true conservative has a chance to win.
Whoever wins the GOP nomination is going to have an uphill climb to defeat Clinton, even with all her baggage. Keep an eye on Gov. Mike Huckabee, Gov. Bobby Jindal, Dr. Ben Carson, Gov. Scott Walker, and Sen. Ted Cruz as possible candidates to be the conservative alternative to Bush in the primaries. I know there are others, but these men are the ones I hear the most about from people who vote traditional values first.
What we don’t need to happen is another split among conservatives, leaving the “establishment” candidate as the front-runner, even though he can get no more than 25% of Republican voters to support him. I hope these men I’ve mentioned are smart enough to see the same and will bow out gracefully when it is clear they cannot win.
But why are so many conservative candidates apparently lining up to run for the GOP nomination in the first place?
I think conservatives long for a return to the blissful (though not perfect) days of Ronald Reagan. They understand the growing problems in America and believe these are caused by a departure from the principles our Founding Fathers stood for. They want our nation to turn back – and they are willing to stand up and say that. We should be happy to have so many brave souls who are willing to take the blowback that inevitably comes from doing so.
Even if they can’t all win the nomination
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