Monday, June 30, 2014

Workplace secrecy agreements appear to violate federal whistleblower laws

Workplace secrecy agreements appear to violate federal whistleblower laws

In November 2012, the U.S. Department of Energy asked contract employees at the Hanford plutonium processing plant in Washington state to take an unusual oath.

The DOE wanted them to sign nondisclosure agreements that prevented them from reporting wrongdoing at the nation’s most contaminated nuclear facility without getting approval from an agency supervisor. The agreements also barred them from using any information for financial gain, a possible violation of federal whistleblower laws, which allow employees to collect reward money for reporting wrongdoing.

Donna Busche reluctantly signed the agreement.

“It was a gag order,” said Busche, 51, who served as the manager of environmental and nuclear safety at the Hanford waste treatment facility for a federal contractor until she was fired in February after raising safety concerns. “The message was pretty clear: ‘Don’t say anything to anyone, or else.’ ”

The company that fired Busche, URS, has said her termination was unrelated to her whistleblowing. Busche and another employee testified before Congress in March at a hearing called by Sen. Claire McCaskill (D-Mo.) to examine the handling of whistleblowers at Hanford.

An Energy spokesman denied that the nondisclosure agreements violated federal law.

“The DOE fully complies with the law,” Brendan Daly said. “We not only encourage but require contractors to report waste, fraud and abuse, with no retaliation.”

Lawyers who represent whistleblowers like Busche say they are seeing a rise in the use of overly restrictive nondisclosure agreements, which prevent employees from reporting fraud, even to government investigators. The agreements incorporate language that goes beyond those that had traditionally protected proprietary information, the attorneys said. In recent months, agreements criticized as overly restrictive have surfaced at Kellogg, Brown and Root, one of the nation’s largest defense contractors, and International Relief and Development, a nonprofit organization in Arlington County, Va. The nonprofit collected more than $1 billion in tax dollars for war-related projects funded by the U.S. Agency for International Development.

The Securities and Exchange Commission is investigating the agreements at KBR, and the Special Inspector General for Afghanistan Reconstruction is examining the agreements used by IRD. Both companies have denied wrongdoing, and IRD changed the wording of its agreements after they were written about in The Washington Post.

Fear of retaliation for reporting fraud in the workplace is on the rise, according to surveys of federal employees and workers on Wall Street. The U.S. Office of Special Counsel is investigating reports that the Department of Veterans Affairs retaliated against 37 workers who had come forward with allegations of wrongdoing. Some of those employees had tried to report problems with the VA’s medical appointment scheduling system, which is now the subject of a growing national controversy.

The federal government has been encouraging whistleblowers to come forward and trying to protect them since the Civil War, when Congress passed the False Claims Act to punish war profiteers. Under the act, whistleblowers are entitled to collect a percentage of the fraud they uncover. In one of the largest such cases, American banker Bradley Birkenfeld reported secret deposits by U.S. citizens in the Swiss bank UBS. In 2012, he collected a $104 million bounty.

Other famous whistleblowers include Daniel Ellsberg, who leaked the Pentagon’s secret history of the Vietnam War to the New York Times; Karen Silkwood, who reported safety issues at a nuclear facility run by Kerr-McKee and died in a mysterious car crash; and A. Ernest Fitzgerald, an Air Force official during the Nixon administration who blew the whistle on widespread fraud at the Pentagon, including $400 hammers and $600 toilet seats.

Increased protection

Pressure to bolster whistleblower laws and provide more protection for those who come forward mounted after reports of fraud in the banking and financial services industries that led to the Great Recession of 2007-09. In 2010, Congress passed the Dodd-Frank Wall Street Reform and Consumer Protection Act, which established the Office of the Whistleblower at the SEC. The law also created a bounty program at the SEC to pay whistleblowers.

On June 16, the new SEC whistleblower office announced that it had filed its first civil case, involving a whistleblower who accused a hedge fund of retaliation after the whistleblower reported improper trading activity. The hedge fund settled by paying a $2.2 million fine.

Nondisclosure agreements traditionally have been used to prevent employees from going to competitors and taking trade secrets with them. But lawyers for whistleblowers say they are seeing a dramatic increase in the number of potentially illegal agreements employees are being asked to sign since the Dodd-Frank law went into effect.

“Corporate America is becoming far more sophisticated and aggressive in its efforts to discourage people from coming forward and reporting externally,” said Jordan A. Thomas, who helped to establish the SEC’s whistleblower office as an assistant director there and now works for a New York law firm, Labaton Sucharow. One of his clients is the hedge-fund whistleblower.

Thomas said he has other clients who work for Wall Street firms that are under investigation by the SEC and were asked to sign overly restrictive nondisclosure agreements that prohibit or discourage them from cooperating with federal investigators.

Whistleblower experts say corporations are trying to shield themselves after the Dodd-Frank law by creating rigid internal reporting rules, such as requiring people to report wrongdoing to their supervisors at work before going to outside investigators. Companies are also asking workers to sign agreements that bar them from speaking out or benefiting from the bounty program.

“We are seeing a marked increase in an effort by employers to prevent their employees from speaking to regulators,” said David J. Marshall, a partner at Katz, Marshall & Banks, a whistleblower law firm in Washington. “As these whistleblower programs have grown more prominent, we have seen a growth in the number of types of agreements. They have a truly chilling effect on employees coming forward.”

‘Deeply troubling’

SEC officials say they are taking the reports seriously.

“I’m very concerned about these kinds of agreements,” said Stephen L. Cohen, associate director of the Division of Enforcement at the SEC. “It is likely that a lot of people are not coming to us because of these agreements. Anything that inhibits a person’s desire to come forward to tell us about violations of the law is deeply troubling.”

The SEC prohibits corporations from preventing workers from communicating with the agency about possible securities-law violations, “including enforcing, or threatening to enforce, a confidentiality agreement,” according to agency regulations.

Sen. Charles E. Grassley, (R-Iowa), a leading advocate for whistleblowers, said he has discovered that most federal agencies have been failing to comply with anti-gag provisions of the Whistleblower Protection Enhancement Act. Under the 2012 act, federal agencies are required to notify employees that they are obligated to report fraud allegations, even if they have signed nondisclosure agreements.

Grassley’s office surveyed 15 Cabinet-level departments covering much of the federal workforce and found that most have not made that message clear to their workers.

“More than ever I’m hearing from whistleblowers about nondisclosure agreements being forced upon them by federal agencies.” Grassley said. “It’s a disturbing trend because federal law protects their right to make protected disclosures to Congress and inspectors general, among others. These agreements only serve to silence whistleblowers for fear of retribution.”

After the passage of Dodd-Frank and an earlier reform bill, the Sarbanes-Oxley Act of 2002, which imposed strict financial disclosure requirements on companies and improved protections for whistleblowers, U.S. corporations found themselves in uncharted legal territory, employment law experts say.

Many corporate executives say the Dodd-Frank legislation will discourage employees from reporting problems within their own companies to cash in on the SEC bounty program. And it could inspire employees to concoct fraudulent allegations, the executives say.

Employment lawyers say those fears may be unfounded.

“What we’ve seen is a siege mentality at corporations, where there is a fear that there will be a rush of people running to the authorities,” said Donna Boehme, the former chief compliance officer for BP who is now a leading national expert in the corporate compliance field. “Companies that care, they want people to come forward and they want people to feel safe. Companies that don’t care, they intentionally create a chilling effect.”

Boehme cited the nondisclosure agreements at KBR as a significant case study for corporate compliance officers and whistleblower lawyers.

In 2005, KBR contract employee Harry Barko, who was based in central Iraq, came forward to say he had witnessed fraud in a multibillion-dollar program awarded to the company to provide support services on U.S. military bases in Iraq. After Barko complained internally, he said his computer was confiscated at the request of the company’s legal department in Houston. He said KBR then tried to transfer him from the Al Asad Air Base to Baghdad.

“I was in the cross hairs,” Barko said in a recent interview.

He said he left Iraq, contacted a Washington law firm that specializes in whistleblower cases and filed a lawsuit against KBR and its parent company at the time, Halliburton. The companies are no longer affiliated. KBR has denied wrongdoing and is seeking to have Barko’s lawsuit dismissed.

Earlier this year, during a deposition in the lawsuit, KBR’s vice president of legal affairs disclosed the existence of a three-paragraph nondisclosure agreement the company had been using for internal fraud investigations.

The agreements prohibited employees seeking to report fraud from discussing their allegations without authorization from KBR’s general counsel. Employees also were warned that violations of the agreements could result in “termination of employment.”

KBR officials said the agreements were designed to protect the integrity of the internal review process, not to cover up wrongdoing. They also noted that KBR employees are encouraged to report allegations of fraud.

Since the agreements surfaced in February, Barko’s lawyer, Stephen M. Kohn, has been trying to force KBR to disclose all reports of fraud the company received relating to the logistics contract. KBR attorneys argued that those reports were protected by attorney-client privilege and should not be released.

A federal judge ruled earlier this year that the agreements were not protected, but a three-judge appellate court panel on Friday sided with KBR. Kohn said he plans to appeal.

Subtle changes

While the KBR agreements use direct language, others that have been surfacing in the workplace are more subtle, whistleblower lawyers say. Some instruct employees to report wrongdoing to the company before alerting an outside agency. Others tell employees that they cannot collect monetary awards for fraud they uncover.

“There has been a shift from the traditional, sweeping gag orders to more disingenuous variations of these agreements,” said Tom Devine, legal director of the Government Accountability Project, which represents numerous whistleblowers, including former National Security Agency contractor Edward Snowden. “The techniques are becoming much more sophisticated, but they have the same chilling effect.”

Cohen, the SEC enforcement official, said his agency is paying attention to the kinds of nondisclosure agreements employees are being asked to sign.

“We have our eyes wide open,” Cohen said.

Belval is a fellow at the Investigative Reporting Workshop at American University.



R

Sunday, June 29, 2014

GRASSROOTS BOOTCAMP

Grassroots Organization Boot Camp

Friday, August 22, 2014 at 6:00 PM –
Saturday, August 23, 2014 at 9:00 PM (PDT)
Ticket TypePriceQty
Grassroots Boot CampMore Info$31.74

10 

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Event Details

Georgia Tea Party Patriots is holding an intensive Grassroots Organization Boot Camp in order to provide needed training for grassroots activists so they can more successfully  engage in advancing tea party ideals and hold elected officials accountable. Activists need to be better organized.

The event begins Friday, August 22nd at 6:00 pm followed by a candidate "Meet and Greet" reception at 7:00 . Registration opens at 5:00 pm.

Saturday's session begins at 8:30 am with registration opening at 7:30 am. The event ends at 5:00 pm

We will have only two speakers Saturday. The rest will be intensive workshops.

Our guest speakers will be Herman Cain and Texas Congressman Louis Gohmert.

Attendance is limited to the first 300 to register. Registration fee is $ 30.00 and registration ends August 15th. There will no registration at the door. 

Questions about the event?

Contact the Organizer


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FREE STUFF: CREATING A GHETTO MENTQLITY

SATURDAY, JUNE 28, 2014

JpegBy Carl Jackson - 

Liberals love living the American Dream, they just can't afford for their constituents to know it.

Hillary Clinton is determined to convince people that she knows what it's like to struggle to earn a living; Joe Biden and Michelle Obama have jumped on the bandwagon as well. They don't realize that their voters could care less whether or not they're rich or grew up rich, because that's not why they vote for them. Democrats vote for their politicians because they believe that despite being rich Democrats care enough for the "little man" to give them free stuff that they take from the rich people that they've been taught don't care for them at all. This is greed and envy of the worst kind because it's based on your wallet and not your heart. Unfortunately, they've not yet figured out that they hurt themselves when they demand that their politicians take more money from their employers via over-taxation.

Wealth obtained honestly is no big deal. On the other hand, wealth obtained while you teach your voters that poverty is a virtue all the while demonizing rich people is a big deal. Allow me to quickly recap my last article "Ghetto Fabulous Money Management, Democrats, and Seattle's New Minimum Wage," because it will help you understand what Hillary and many other Democrats are up to.

In that article I explained that many minorities like to "floss." That is we like to purchase things that give us the appearance that we're wealthier than we really are. As a far left Democrat Hillary has managed to box herself into a corner. How do you convince your base that you're down with their struggle when you make $200,000 a speech and you've never been down on your luck, at least not for the last forty years? You can't!

Therefore, Hillary has endeavored to try a new tactic. You guessed it! Reverse Ghetto Fabulous Money Management. That is, she must convince her base that she's not as wealthy and out of touch with the middle-class as her assets suggest despite the evidence. A Conservative could never pull this off, but the question is can Hillary? Yes, as long as her friends in the left wing media allow her to.

Today's journalist seem to be in the business of attacking Conservatives and reporting as little news as possible if they believe the stories will hurt their candidate. Surprisingly, ABC's Diane Sawyer and The UK Guardian pressed Hillary on she and her husband's wealth. This leads me to believe they've got Hillary fatigue themselves, or they're so concerned that her income could become an issue for 2016 that they prefer to "Romney" her now in order to clear the way for Michelle Obama (it could happen) or another left wing radical that can build on the Socialist foundation that President Obama has built.

Quite frankly, I'm surprised that people are surprised that Hillary's book hasn't been selling well. Liberal voters don't read! However, they might closer to 2016. Hillary is already a known entity to her fans. Everything they want to know about her they believe they already know. In my opinion, continuing her book tour will only do more damage to her image, because she'll be forced to answer questions in public that she hoped her book would answer for her.

Let's face it, Hillary is no Bill. She talks too much and she's not quick-witted. Overall, she's just not inspiring anymore. Her desperate attempt to pretend that she's an average person speaks to the evil that resides in today's Democrat party. Instead of encouraging their constituent's to use their God-given talents to achieve monetary success, they demonize wealth all the while building their own financial portfolio's and power structure so they can continue to rule over the very people they claim they want to help. Like I wrote in my last article, Democrats succeed when you fail, and Republicans succeed when you succeed.

As long as you're financially dependent or emotionally invested in Uncle Sam Democrats like Hillary know they stand a greater chance of securing your vote. If her book tour continues to go as bad as it has, liberals may throw her under the bus just like Obama did his grandmother and preacher in order to save Liberalism itself. The sad reality is that Hillary would've truly helped her voter's had she written a book teaching people how to build themselves up. Instead, she's trying to convince them that she's just as lowly.

How sad is that?




Alabama Chief Justice Roy Moore: God Essential for US Courts, Law to Function

Alabama Chief Justice Roy Moore: God Essential for US Courts, Law to Function
  • Alabama Superior Court Justice Roy Moore pauses before addressing his supporters outside
    (Photo: Reuters/Tami Chappell)
    Alabama Superior Court Justice Roy Moore pauses before addressing his supporters outside the Alabama Judicial Building where a monument of the Ten Commandments was put in place by Moore and in which he has refused to take down, August 21, 2003 in Montgomery, Alabama.

June 7, 2014|1:20 pm

Alabama's Chief Justice Roy Moore, who has been outspoken about his Christian beliefs, recently discussed why he believes the U.S. needs God in order for its court and law systems to function properly.

Speaking at the Pierce County Prayer Breakfast in Tacoma, Wash., recently, the top judge in Alabama referenced the Pledge of Allegiance as evidence of why Americans need God in their legal system. A video of Moore's speech was uploaded to YouTube on June 6. 

"When we say the Pledge, we say 'I pledge allegiance to the Flag of the United States of America, and to the Republic for which it stands, one Nation,' […] we pause," he said.

"They didn't mean for us to pause, ladies and gentlemen, and that pause has cost us a lot."

"It has cost a lot because we have forgotten that God is intimately connected with this nation," the judge continued. "Without God there would be no nation. Without God there would be no freedom to believe what you want. That goes all the way back to people like Thomas Jefferson and his bill for religious freedom. He knew what it meant. He knew the limits of civil government, and he knew who gave us that freedom to believe what we want about God, but it comes from God."

The chief justice went on to argue that stating a belief in God is different than stating a belief in organized religion, and therefore referencing "God" in the Pledge of Allegiance does not violate the U.S. Constitution's law on the Separation of Church vs. State.

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"God is sovereign over our government and over our law," he told those in attendance at the prayer breakfast. "And when we are lead to believe anything else, when we exclude him from our lives, exclude him from our law, exclude him from our courts, then they will fail."

Moore previously made waves in May when he discussed the First Amendment at a Pastors-for-Life luncheon, suggesting that the First Amendment only applies to Christians because it references a "creator God."

"Everybody, to include the U.S. Supreme Court, has been deceived as to one little word in the First Amendment called 'religion' – they can't define it!" Moore said at the event.

"They can't define it the way Mason, Madison and even the United State Supreme Court defined it, 'the duties we owe to the creator and the manner of discharging it,'" the chief justice continued, citing James Madison's Memorial and Remonstrance Against Religious Assessments.

"They don't want to do that, because that acknowledges a creator God. Buddha didn't create us. Mohammed didn't create us. It's the God of the Holy Scriptures."

"They didn't bring a Koran over on the Pilgrim ship, the Mayflower," Moore continued. "Let's get real. Let's go back and learn our history. Let's stop playing games."

Moore has become most well-known for an incident in 2003, when he refused the orders of a federal judge to remove a Ten Commandments monument from the Alabama judicial building. He then lost his post as chief justice as a result of the incident, but was re-elected in 2013.



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Friday, June 27, 2014

Porn 'Epidemic' Is Main Reason for Christian Divorces, Filmmakers Claim

Porn 'Epidemic' Is Main Reason for Christian Divorces, Filmmakers Claim
  • wedding, marriage
    (Photo: REUTERS/Shannon Stapleton)
    A bride and groom take pictures by the fountains of the Unisphere at Flushing Meadows Corona Park in the borough of Queens in New York July 9, 2013.

June 12, 2014|10:40 am

Christian filmmakers releasing a DVD on Internet pornography argue that the porn "epidemic" is the main problem contributing to Christian divorces.

The filmmakers have put together a DVD teaching curriculum on sexual purity called the "Conquer Series," partly in response to statistics that show that 50 percent of pastors and 68 percent of Christian men confess to viewing Internet porn on a weekly basis.

"The shocking statistics were the game-changer for me," said Director Jeremy Wiles on Wednesday. "So, we spent two years developing a 5-hour discipleship curriculum, interviewing top Christian leaders on this subject and shooting battle reenactments to illustrate the war that every man faces with sexual temptation. I wanted to give men proven principles on how to find freedom. We can be the generation that changes the statistic."

Christians have spoken out against the harmful effects of Internet porn. Heath Lambert, executive director of the Association of Certified Biblical Counselors, has called pornography "the greatest moral crisis in the church today."

"With the onslaught of Internet pornography you can go in the bedroom, shut the door, open up your laptop or your iPhone and look at whatever you want to look at, delete the Internet history and move on with your life. And it seems like nobody knows, it seems like you were successful," he told CP earlier. "I think it's that sin festers in the darkness. And so I think that layer of darkness, where nobody has to know at first, is what is causing all the damage."

The "Conqueror Series" is being hosted by former pastor and head of Pure Desire Ministries Dr. Ted Roberts, who has counseled men for over 30 years on pornography issues.

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"Our goal with the Conquer Series is to give men a battle plan for purity. We've got a great tool here that will change lives, but we need pastors to partner with us to fight this battle," Roberts explained.

The series will feature interviews with brain scientists and church leaders, and says that it is not so much about behavior modification as it is about "heart transformation."

Wiles noted that "pornography is a really tough subject for a lot of pastors to openly confront." "This cinematic Series will give them confidence that they can restore men using proven Bible-based principles," he stated.

Paul Cole, president of Christian Men's Network, commented on the series, saying: "When the Conquer Series begins to be a part of who we are, it will begin to change what we do and who we are as a church."




Appeals court: States can't ban gay marriage

NOTE: appeals Court overreach on States Rights. 

Appeals court: States can't ban gay marriage

DENVER | A federal appeals court ruled Wednesday that states must allow gay couples to marry, finding the Constitution protects same-sex relationships and putting a remarkable legal winning streak across the country one step closer to the U.S. Supreme Court.

The three-judge panel in Denver ruled 2-1 that states cannot deprive people of the fundamental right to marry simply because they want to be wedded to someone of the same sex.

The judges added they don't want to brand as intolerant those who oppose gay marriage, but they said there is no reasonable objection to the practice.

"It is wholly illogical to believe that state recognition of love and commitment of same-sex couples will alter the most intimate and personal decisions of opposite-sex couples," the judges wrote, addressing arguments that the ruling could undermine traditional marriage.

The decision by the 10th U.S. Circuit Court of Appeals panel upheld a lower court ruling that struck down Utah's gay marriage ban. It becomes law in the six states covered by the court: Colorado, Kansas, New Mexico, Oklahoma, Utah and Wyoming. However, gay marriages won't be happening in the near future because the panel immediately put its ruling on hold pending an appeal.

The Utah attorney general's office said in a statement it will file a petition with the Supreme Court seeking a review of the panel's ruling. It also left open the possibility of requesting a review from the full panel of 10th Circuit judges.

"Although the Court's 2-1 split decision does not favor the State, we are pleased that the ruling has been issued and takes us one step closer to reaching certainty and finality for all Utahns on such an important issue with a decision from the highest court," the statement said.

Plaintiff Kody Partridge, meanwhile, said she and her wife, Laurie Wood, were thrilled about the ruling.

"This is such as historic thing, not just for Utah but for Laurie and me" and plaintiffs across the country, Partridge said. "This is a big day."

The decision gives increased momentum to a legal cause that already has compiled an impressive record in the lower courts after the Supreme Court last year struck down the federal Defense of Marriage Act. Since then, 16 federal judges have issued rulings siding with gay marriage advocates.

The latest of those rulings was in Indiana, where a federal judge struck down that state's same-sex marriage ban in a decision Wednesday that immediately allowed gay couples to wed. The Indiana and Utah decisions came just one day ahead of the one-year anniversary of the landmark Supreme Court decision striking down part of a federal anti-gay marriage law.

Evan Wolfson, president of Freedom to Marry, said Utah's legal victory was sweeter because of where it originated — a conservative, deeply religious state in the heart of the mountain west.

"What is so powerful here is that we have the first federal appellate court and ... it's a case coming out of Utah affirming in the strongest, clearest, boldest terms that the Constitution guarantees the freedom to marry and equal protection for all Americans and all means all, including gay couples," he said.

Gay marriage opponents, meanwhile, have vowed to continue their fight.

"While judges can, by judicial fiat, declare same-sex 'marriage' legal, they will never be able to make it right," said Tony Perkins, president of the Family Research Council Perkins. "The courts, for all their power, can't overturn natural law."

The Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints said in a statement on its website Wednesday that the church maintains marriage should be between a man and a woman but believes "all people should be treated with respect."

Republican Gov. Gary Herbert in a statement said he was disappointed by the decision and believes states should determine their own laws regarding same-sex marriage. He said he hopes the U.S. Supreme Court will rule on the issue to provide clarity.

In his dissent, Justice Paul J. Kelly Jr. said the 10th Circuit was overstepping its authority and that states should be able to decide who can marry.

"We should resist the temptation to become philosopher-kings, imposing our views under the guise of the Fourteenth Amendment," he wrote.

More than 1,000 Utah same-sex couples wed in December after the initial ruling in the case, before the Supreme Court issued a stay. Along with the Utah case, the 10th Circuit panel considered a challenge to the Oklahoma ban. It did not immediately issue a decision in that case Wednesday.

Oklahoma plaintiff Sharon Baldwin said moments after the Utah ruling that she is optimistic because the two cases are so similar.

"We're thrilled for the plaintiffs in Utah," Baldwin said. "We think this is wonderful news, and we're excited to see our ruling coming soon."

Though the Utah and Oklahoma cases have been closely watched, it is unclear if one of them will be the first to reach the Supreme Court. The high court could choose from cases moving through five other federal appellate courts, and wouldn't consider a case until next year at the earliest.

Attorneys representing Utah and Oklahoma argued voters have the right to define marriage in their states. Gay rights lawyers countered that they cannot do so in a way that deprives gay people of their fundamental rights.

The appellate ruling comes 42 years after the Supreme Court refused to hear a case of two men who were refused a marriage license in Minnesota, finding there was no legal issue for the justices to consider, and just 10 years after 11 states voted to outlaw gay marriage.

Now same-sex marriage is legal in 19 states and the District of Columbia. Recent polls show a majority of Americans support it.




Waiting For The Wave: The 2014 Senate Map

Waiting For The Wave: The 2014 Senate Map

2014 SEN RCP 6 26 14

The polling tells us that the bulk of 2014′s contested Senate races are basically dogfights. So why are so many Republicans optimistic? Because it’s still June, and some of the elements of the dynamics of 2014 may not be fully baked into the polling yet. How good a year this is for the GOP will depend on those factors.

If you look at the chart at the top of this post, what you pretty clearly can see from the data is that the Senate races right now seem to be sorted into three general groups (although in each group I’m including one race that is less favorable for the GOP than the rest).

Group One, three currently Democrat-held seats in deep-red territory without real incumbents, is the likely GOP blowouts. Montana and South Dakota are both looking locked up, and the South Dakota polling may get even uglier for the Democrats if the third-party support for Larry Pressler (a former Republican Senator running as an independent) fades. West Virginia is closer, close enough that a giant gaffe or scandal or something could put it back on the table, and in a different year or state a 10-point lead would not look insurmountable. But it’s hard to see where that support comes from, in a 2014 midterm in West Virginia.

Group Two is the tossups, nine states that are really too close to call right now. Seven of the nine are Democrat-held seats, five with incumbents (Alaska, Arkansas, Colorado, Louisiana and North Carolina) and two open seats (Iowa and Michgigan). One of the two GOP-held seats has an incumbent (Kentucky), the other is open (Georgia). The Democrats have settled on candidates in all nine, Republicans still have a primary in Alaska (the poll average here is the matchup of frontrunner Dan Sullivan against incumbent Mark Begich), a runoff in Georgia (the poll average here is the matchup of frontrunner Jack Kingston against Democrat nominee Michelle Nunn), and a “jungle primary” that will probably result in a December runoff in Louisiana (the poll average here is the runoff matchup of frontrunner Bill Cassidy against incumbent Mary Landrieu). In only one of these races, in Michigan, does the current leader have a 5-point lead; in five of the nine races the frontrunner is below 45%, and in eight of the nine (all but Cassidy in Louisiana) below 46%. While a 2 or 3-point lead in the polls in October may be meaningful, a race with a lead that size in June and 10-20 percent undecided is functionally a tossup, at least until you take into consideration the various factors (national environment, state electorate) that are likely to pull the race in one direction or another as we enter the fall.

Why do Republican analysts feel so optimistic? Because polls, as we recall from 2010 and 2012, are only as good as their ability to project who will turn out and vote, and we are probably still a few months from pollsters being able to really make accurate assessments of what the fall electorate will look like. As Sam Wang, Ph.D., has noted, the various models for predicting how the Senate races will go are predicting different things depending on the extent to which they look beyond the polls to incorporate predictive elements like the economy, the effect of incumbency, the President’s approval rating, and the like. Sean Trende, here and here, offered a model based mainly on Obama’s approval rating, and found even after some tweaks to incorporate a few other variables, that Democrats could be projected to face double-digit Senate seat losses if the President’s approval rating was 43% or lower on Election Day.

chart2-3-11

That’s just one way of skinning this cat, but right now, Obama’s approval sits at 41.5 approval/53.9 disapproval, and has been trending rather sharply downward for the past month, with his approval on the economy, foreign policy and healthcare all consistently worse than his overall approval rating. (Via Ace, it’s even worse in the battleground states). In that national environment, with midterm elections in general tending to produce Republican-leaning electorates, and with the historic poor performance of second-term presidents in sixth-year midterms, you really have to feel pretty good about GOP chances of winning most of those nine races. That may seem improbable, but there were basically seven Senate races that went to the wire or involved potentially big Democratic upsets in 2012 – Pennsylvania, Ohio, Wisconsin, Virginia, Massachusetts, Indiana, and Missouri – and I didn’t think at the time they would run the table and win all seven. They did. In a few of those, like Virginia and Wisconsin, the Senate races tracked almost precisely the outcome in the Presidential race, meaning turnout from the top of the ticket was decisive. If the national environment really does show as sour across the board for Democrats in November as it looks from today, eight-for-nine or nine-for-nine could be a possibility. If the environment (including the parties’ turnout operations) swings back to a more neutral one, I’d be looking more at the GOP winning five of the nine, which would net a six-seat overall gain in the Senate, enough for control of the chamber but by a very narrow margin that might not last beyond 2016.

For now, that’s still a big if, not reflected in polls showing voters not really ready to commit to either side in most of those races. It’s why Republicans are waiting for the wave. But it’s also a reminder that those races won’t win themselves – Democrats ran the table in 2012 by fighting all the way to the whistle in every race with every resource they had. One thing helping the GOP may be the Governor’s races: for example, Rick Snyder is now comfortably ahead in the polls in Michigan, and the Colorado GOP dodged a repeat of the 2010 trainwreck by picking Bob Beauprez over Tom Tancredo; Beauprez may not beat John Hickenlooper, but he’ll give him a tough race without Tancredo’s divisiveness.

Finally, there’s Group Three, the races in which the polling shows the Democrats safe for now – but, depending on the national environment, maybe not safe enough just yet to declare those races over. Incumbents Jeff Merkley in Oregon, Al Franken in Minnesota, Jeanne Shaheen in New Hampshire all have leads around 10 points, and Mark Warner in Virginia has a sixteen-point lead on Ed Gillespie. (It’s also always possible some other races could come on the board; there hasn’t been much in the way of general election polling in Mississippi or New Mexico, for example. But we’ll have to wait and see). But none of them are regularly polling above 50%, the usual rule of thumb for a safe incumbent.

Realistically, those are “reach” races that only go on the board if things really get ugly for the Democrats. Oregon is, I would guess, the best hope for the GOP relative to its present polling given the Cover Oregon fiasco, New Hampshire the toughest of the OR-MN-NH trio due to Shaheen’s personal popularity and the likelihood of a landslide win for the Democrats in the Governor’s race (the other two will have tight GOV races). Also, Al Franken has a huge warchest, so his race with self-funder Mike McFadden could get ugly and expensive. Virginia, of course, is the longest reach, but Gillespie should be sufficiently well-funded and anodyne to take advantage if Warner slides into the neighborhood of actually being vulnerable.

Predictions? Anybody who’s predicting the fall elections in June with too much certainty is nuts. But right now, Republicans have a lot of opportunities in the Senate. If Obama’s approval rating keeps tanking, the GOP avoids any major campaign-killing gaffes, and the Democrats don’t come up with a magic turnout bullet, the swing in the Senate could be bigger than anyone is realistically talking about right now. Don’t count your chickens; this is just the optimistic scenario. But it is not, from the vantage point of late June, an unrealistic one.




Thursday, June 26, 2014

Want to Disprove Man-Made Climate Change? A Scientist Will Give You $10,000 if You Can

Want to Disprove Man-Made Climate Change? A Scientist Will Give You $10,000 if You Can

A physics professor is so fed up with the claims made by “climate change deniers” that he has launched a “$10,000 Global Warming Skeptic Challenge.”

Dr. Christopher Keating, a scientist who has previously taught a the University of South Dakota and for the U.S. Naval Academy, issued a challenge for someone to scientifically disprove global warming. (Image source: PR Newswire)

Dr. Christopher Keating, a scientist who has previously taught a the University of South Dakota and for the U.S. Naval Academy, issued a challenge for someone to scientifically disprove global warming. (Image source: PR Web)

The challenge issued by Dr. Christopher Keating, a professor who previously taught at the University of South Dakota and the U.S. Naval Academy, according to a news release, will award prize money to anyone who uses the scientific method to prove that human activity has not been a factor leading to climate change.

Keating, who published the e-book “Undeniable: Dialogues on Global Warming,” wrote on his blog that he would be the final judge of any entries and would provide his comments “on why any entry fails to prove the point.”

“I know you are not going to get rich with $10,000. But, tell me, wouldn’t you like to have a spare $10,000? After all, the skeptics all claim it is a simple matter, and it doesn’t even have to be original,” Keating wrote. “If it is so easy, just cut and paste the proof from somewhere. Provide the scientific evidence and prove your point and the $10,000 is yours!

“This is no joke. If someone can provide a proof that I can’t refute, using scientific evidence, then I will write them a check.”

Keating admitted his bias though, writing that he is sure he will never have to whip out his checkbook “because it can’t be proven.”

“The scientific evidence for global warming is overwhelming and no one can prove otherwise,” Keating said.

Some in the comments accused Keating of having an inability to judge fairly because he has “strong opinions on the subject and a direct financial vested interest in not awarding the $10,000.” But Keating told the College Fix he is “stuck with having to be honest about it.”

“If I am a fraud, then I will be held up as an example of how climate scientists everywhere are frauds,” he told the College Fix.

In addition to the $10,000 challenge, Keating also issued a lesser $1,000 challenge for anyone who could provide “valid scientific evidence indicating man-made global warming is not real.” This latter challenge isn’t to disprove man-made global warming but just evidence against it.

Keating refuted his first submission, saying it was disqualified from the $10,000 prize by not being a scientific proof. It failed the second challenge because Keating said it used “cherry-picked” data.

To his second submission, Keating ultimately decided that while he couldn’t refute any of the work from the scientist featured in the entry, but he did contest that it showed man-made global warming wasn’t real. Basically, Keating argued that just because historical evidence shows climate change occurred naturally “does not detract at all from the data that shows we have changed the climate today with our emissions.”

All in all, Keating accused “the climate deniers of today” of waging a campaign “very similar to the one waged by tobacco advocates to deny a link between smoking and lung cancer.”

(H/T: io9)

Front page image via Shutterstock.

BENGHAZI EXPLAINED IN RATIONAL TERMS

Think about just how plausible this is! if True, Benghazi Is Even Worse Than We Thought and it explains a lot! 

Video Explanation:

http://www.redflagnews.com/headlines/revealed-if-this-is-true-benghazi-is-even-worse-than-we-ever-thought