Gay marriage may be a settled issue in as many as 30 states after Monday’s Supreme Court decision, but it still poses a existential threat to many Republican candidates, especially as the calendar turns to the 2016 presidential contest.
As public opinion has sailed toward greater acceptance of same sex unions, Republicans have struggled to finesse the issue, caught between pressure from powerful conservative groups and younger voters who hold more liberal views.
The GOP presidential candidates face a particularly delicate dance in early primary states such as Iowa and South Carolina: they must appease the conservative foot soldiers who control those early contests while not alienating middle-of-the-road and younger voters key to their general election hopes.
When the Supreme Court cleared the way Monday for same-sex marriage in 11 states, there was no evidence that conservative groups were backing away from the fight, even if few candidates in November’s closely contested races and beyond were looking to jump into the middle of it.
Leaders such as Ralph Reed of the Coalition for Faith & Freedom and Peggy Nance of Concerned Women for America insisted that the decision would serve as a rallying cry for conservatives in November.
“We cannot overemphasize the importance of the upcoming elections,” Nance said after the decision. “Conservatives must come out to the polls in the upcoming elections in overwhelming numbers and make sure that our elected officials, and the next president of the United States, respect and appreciate the right of the people to define marriage as it has always been throughout our history — the union between one man and one woman.”
Language like that serves to turn up the heat not only on 2014 Republicans but also on the would-be candidates who are beginning their courtship of voters. Every cycle, candidates spend a significant amount of time attempting to curry favor with influential social conservative leaders — making stops at Bob Jones University in South Carolina, for example — to affirm their faith in traditional party principles. With same-sex marriage back on the agenda, some potential candidates are likely to face a rougher road than others.
Ohio Sen. Rob Portman could face a backlash from conservative groups for speaking publicly about his personal evolution on the issue after learning his son was gay.
New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie, who opposes gay marriage, has already faced criticism from social conservatives after he chose not to pursue a legal fight to block same-sex marriages in his state in 2013.
Potential 2016 candidate Ted Cruz, the Texas senator and tea party darling who is trying to galvanize conservatives, called the Supreme Court decision “tragic and indefensible” and said it amounted to “judicial activism at its worst.”
Texas Gov. Rick Perry, who also is seriously considering a run for president, said in a statement that marriage laws “should be left to the states to determine.”
“The Supreme Court’s refusal to address these cases further places a court’s judgment above the judgment of people who live in states like Oklahoma, Utah, Virginia, Wisconsin and Indiana, who have made their collective voices heard on this issue,” Perry said.
Contrast that with the reaction in more narrowly-divided states like Florida and Georgia, two states with increasing numbers of younger voters. Several political analysts noted that gay marriage has hardly come up at all in the Florida governor’s race, where Republican incumbent Rick Scott is fending off a challenge from Democrat Charlie Crist, or in the race for U.S. Senate in Georgia, where Republican David Perdue is running against Democrat Michelle Nunn.
Gay marriage in Georgia “is so far on the back burner that it’s probably out in the pantry. It just hasn’t been mentioned” this year, said University of Georgia political science professor Charles Bullock.
“You have a generational divide now within the Republican Party — for young Republicans, and even some activists out there working for candidates — it’s not a big issue anymore for them,” Bullock said.
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